A Bad Day In The Stock Market

A bad day in the stock market can turn out to be a great day the next. Then again there’s days like today that can show you that there’s more of these days to come. Either way, you need to be prepared for both.
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A great deal of bad news came out today that confirms that this slowdown as well as the financial crisis will continue for quite a few months. The news of the new homes sales showed that it’s dropped over 14% in November and compared to last year, it fell 44%. This news hit the construction sector for about 6%-8%.
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To add insult to injury, Initial jobless claims revealed a jump in claims to 588,000. I’m sure that we’ll see more numbers like that for the better part of 2009. In this week alone, we’ve heard of other major companies announcing that they too we be having lay-off in the coming months.
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To top it all off, we have this stimulus plan being passed around Washington that will do a lot for America, but not in the way of actually stimulating the economy. I spoke a few weeks back about the expected stimulus bill could mean great things for the alternative energy sector, amongst other things. Well it seems that this bill will not really do anything for the economy for roughly eighteen months. In the mean time, Washington will be going on a spending spree.
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With the way it’s all going in this country, I’ve pulled out nearly 90% of my capitol out of individual stocks and into more sound investments. I’m not even worried that I won’t make any really good gains because of me sitting on the sidelines, instead, I’ll be able to sleep at night better knowing that I won’t be experiencing any big losses. I’ll get back into the market later in the year.
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That doesn’t mean that I’m not continuing to do my research. I still watch and listen to the TV and radio to keep in touch with the latest news. It would be foolish for me to fall out of touch with the economy, but that doesn’t mean that I have to trade stocks. When I started to be interested in the stock market, I would listen to the news to understand the markets, long before I had money to invest. When I finally had the capitol to invest, I was more prepared.
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If you’re one of the many who’ve taken themselves out of trading because of the condition of the economy, make sure you keep up to date with everything for when you decide to jump back in.

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Stock Prices Are On The Rise

After the year we had I the stock market, it’s nice to see stock prices on the rise. Today the DOW closed at 9015.10, up 62 points for the day. I know that 62 points isn’t really much, but I’ll take whatever I can get on the positive side.
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Stock prices have been rising steadily since the end of November. The Dow is up 19% since it’s November lows as well as the S&P 500 is up over 24% within the same time frame. I hope to see this continue. Especially after the news of Alcoa’s plans to cut 13,000 employees, roughly 13% of the work force, I look forward to see what will come in the next month.
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it seems that everyone globally has plans to pass out a stimulus plan of some sort. China is now reporting that they will have a stimulus plan of over $600 billion. Germany has released information that they too will have a stimulus plan. Everyone is getting happy with someone else’s money to stimulate their own economy. I don’t know about you, but doesn’t it sound odd?
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With all the news coming out that the U.S. can possibly see the light at the end of the tunnel sooner than expected, many traders are moving their capitol out of the consumer staple and health care sectors, which is what happens once the economy starts to show signs of improvement. To me I think it’s just been a good 5-6 weeks and I’m not expecting miracles of the stock market going up from this point without any temporary set backs and corrections.
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On top of all this news (particularly positive), it seems that another billionaire committed suicide. German billionaire Adolf Merckle stepped in front of an oncoming train in Berlin after leaving a note to the reason of his actions. It’s a shame that these wealthy people end their lives after they lose all their wealth. It just goes to show you that money can only make you so happy. This is the fourth person since September to end their lives because of their financial woes.

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What A Way To Start The Year

Last Monday I stated that the markets would finish up for the week. Well the DOW was at 8516 on Friday December 26th at the close. Wouldn’t you know it that the DOW finished this week’s short trading session at 9034.
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What a day Friday was to start off the year. It open up, dropped down and went up from there all day long. It looked like everyone couldn’t wait to start a new trading year. Who knows where the coming week is going to take us. I’m hoping that it will finish in the 10,000 range, but of course that’s asking too much, or is it?
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We have about two weeks before Barack Hussein Obama takes office and there’s a lot of uncertainty about what his administration will do in the few few days of office. He’s been working on a stimulus package while vacationing down in Hawaii. It’s reported to be in the $750 Billion range. Quite a bit of focus on the infrastructure of the country, but we’ll just have to wait and see.
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As for what I have in mind for the coming week. I’m going to take profits where I can and wait for some new buying opportunities to get back in on the stocks I took profits in already. In the Month of December, I gained 25% and I don’t want to lose any of it to the uncertainty in the markets. Good luck to all that are out there and happy trading.

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Stock Market News For The Week

It’s amazing how this week has turned out for me and for some investors that I talk to. I’m not talking about the traders who buy and sell everyday or even the day-traders. I’m referring about investors who have more of a buy and hold mentality. I’ve spoke before in another post about how in these trouble times that the buy-and-hold system isn’t really working. There’s too much volatility in the markets to do that type of trading, but with the moves (or lack of) of the markets this week…who knows.
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In this week the markets have held up quite well and I’ve made some good gains because of the strength and stability in the markets.
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News came out late last week about the Ponzi scheme that Bernard Madoff was running for some time. Taking over $50 billion dollars from many people. I would have figured that more people would have pulled out more money on that news.
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I guess that the Federal Reserve basically removing the lending rate this week help. That really got the markets fired up on Tuesday afternoon. It seem to continue throughout the week as well as news came out about the condition of the financial industry. The dollar has weakened in the last few trading days, which makes me a little confused to how the markets have been moving, but I’m not going to complain at this point.
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It seems that the stability is coming back to the markets as the VIX levels drop to more of a normal and acceptable area. Yes, the markets were flat, but with all the bad news that came out, we should be happy on the performance of the markets.
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Quite a few of the positions that I’ve taken in the last week were down from my core, so I did buy more of those stocks and from Monday to Friday, they’ve all made moves to the upside. With weeks like this when things could have gone worse than they did, It makes me wonder if we’re basically at the bottom already. I guess next week will give us a better clue on the answer of that.

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Stock Trading Insight

So far today in the morning trading hours, the markets are on a tear. The DOW has been up big since it opened and if things continue in this manner, we will have a great day and the DOW should close above 9000 today.
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Talks of the stimulus plan has caused some positive trading throughout this morning’s trading.
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With the moves that have happened this past week in the markets, many think about moving their capital out of the equities out of some of the less favorable sectors and look for the tried-and-true sectors during a recession period.
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We heard last week that we are officially in a recession, but the real question hasn’t been answered. That question is “how long have we been in a recession?”
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With that in mind, you have to take into consideration that the smart money have been positioning themselves in those sectors for sometime to protect their assets.
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An article that I found today talks about the fact that the time to get into some defensive plays, like consumer staples has past and you may want to do something else.

The article is from CNN Money.com, I hope you you find it interesting.

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Is America Doomed?

What is going to happen to America? It seems that the true meaning of capitalism is being destroyed. The problem is capitalism is being destroyed by the very people who say they’re trying to preserve it. How can this be? It’s how I see it. What are your thoughts? here’s mine.

First we started with the financial sector, now it’s the American auto industry. When are the taxpayers going to see the return on their investment in these sectors? At the rate it’s going, I doubt it will ever happen in our life time.

Yes, I know that the government is saying that this will help the economy, but aren’t they the same people who put us in this mess?

In the 1990′s NAFTA was signed and many business’ went over the border to make the products that were being built here in this country. Ford and General Motors have opened factories in Canada and Mexico since NAFTA was past.

When the bill was past in 1996 to help all American buy their own home. I’m sure the politicians were aware of the fact that it would be done with taxpayer’s money through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with the help of adjustable mortgage rates. It helped people get into homes that they couldn’t even afford.

Twenty plus years ago we heard that there was going to be more energy efficient cars within ten years. How come my 2005 truck gets the same mileage as the 1985 Grand Am I owned fifteen years ago? What’s with these CAFE laws and all the other regulations that are put on the automakers when the cars haven’t really improved over the decades.

Now after all this crap that has gone on for too long, the companies that are in trouble are going to the people who caused these problems for help. All the while the American people sit in their living rooms watching mindless TV and are none the wiser. Go figure.

I know that this isn’t a political site, but in all actuality this post isn’t about politics. It’s about the way Capitalism is being destroyed by people who have their own agenda. Wall Street and Main Street are one and the same and from where I live, it doesn’t look like capitalism to me.

We need to stop bailing out these companies that don’t handle their business in a proper manner. If you can’t make the business profitable then you shouldn’t be in business.

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Auto Bailout Heats Up

Again the CEO’s of the big three automakers are back in Washington to see if they can still get an auto bailout from Congress. General Motors, Ford and Chrysler are still looking for money to help keep them afloat.

What amazes me is that the three CEO’s think that if they drive down in hybrid cars (instead of their corporate jets like they did last time), that they are going to have any more of a chance to get the money to fuel their needs.

After going back to the drawing board, the companies came back to show what they’re going to do to improve the condition of the three giants. Of course it’s no longer $25 billion that will be needed to save them, this week it’s at $34 billion. Who knows where it will be when it’s all said and done.

As long as the UAW has a hold on the three companies, they will go out of business. The legacy costs are out of control. There are over 15,000 retirees that get paid $31 per hour from their pension plan for not doing anything for the company. The UAW has caused the costs of cars, truck and SUV’s to get out of control. It’s said that $2000 of of the price of every vehicle is due to legacy costs.
With obligations like that how are these companies ever going to turn a profit? There is no way for any company to be able to stay in business if the payroll cost are going up while the workforce is shrinking. How are they to keep their prices in line with their competition?

If you haven’t noticed, you don’t see any of the foreign automakers that build cars here in this country in Washington looking for a handout. It’s because the UAW has no existence in their factories and before you say that it’s not fair that those workers don’t have the right to have an union. They don’t want it, they make on average $35 per hour to work on an assembly line that the robots do most of the work. Before you say that $28-$42 per hour isn’t much for someone living in New York City, these workers are in Alabama and Tennessee, two of the poorest states in this country.

I have always bought American made cars because I believe in keeping my money in this country. It’s not that I’m against the rest of the world, it’s because I’m an American and proud of it. I will continue to buy American made cars as long as they are still American made cars. I know that no matter what happens to these three companies, there will always be cars made here in this country.
Even if the three of them were to go into bankruptcy and close their doors, someone else will buy their equipment and start to build a new automobile made here in America.

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Bankruptcy In America

In America, if a company can’t make a profit and loses money, they have one choice and that’s to file for bankruptcy.  Just because a company is big doesn’t mean that the government has to lend them taxpayer’s money to save it.
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It’s amazing to see how the CEO’s of these big corporations have destroyed the company so much that they need the assistance of the U.S. government and the American taxpayer to save their skin. How can these men with such education be so stupid to take on the extreme risks that they did?
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What I really want to know is how stupid is Congress to keep on bailing out these companies that shouldn’t even be allowed to operate as a business after losing that much capital. Using the excuse that they’re such big business’ within the United States is a lame one at that. Yes, many people will lose their jobs and the unemployment rate will jump into the double digits, but what other choice do we have? Do we keep giving them money until the Federal Reserve runs out of paper to print more? The airline industry went through bankruptcy years ago and they’re still in business (except for Eastern of course).
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Do you really think that if the big three automakers go into bankruptcy that they (or we) won’t survive? We as American people have to not fall for the hype that the CEO’s, Congress and the mainstream media are trying to feed us. Look at all the money that’s was given to the financial industry and now it turns out it wasn’t used for what it was meant to be used for.
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What about the banking system mess? These companies along with Congress have also done the wrong thing to the American people. If it wasn’t for Congress passing all those bills in the 1990′s that allowed the financial sector to lend money out in sub-prime mortgages, we wouldn’t be in this mess.
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What has me really PO’d is that none of the people who are actually at fault, are being held accountable. Hank Paulson, Dick Fuld, Christopher Cox, Frank Dodd, Barney Frank and the President-elect are all to blame for the financial mess. Dick Wagoner, Alan Mulally and the UAW are to be blamed for the failure of the auto industry. I would like to blame Bob Nardelli from Chrysler too, but he just got there (I will blame him for the fall of The Home Depot).
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Capitalism is what this country was built on, if we are to continue as a capitalistic country we need to let companies fall when they fail to make a profit.
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When the decision was made to let Lehman Brothers filed bankruptcy, the company had no other choice but to restructure everything and sell of the assets that they had to clear their debt. If the American automakers are forced to do the same, they too will do what they have to to make the company survive. If they need to sell off assets, I’m sure that there’s an entrepreneur some where in this country that is willing to make profitable business out of the ashes. He could name the first model Phoenix.

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Henry Paulson And The Recession

Henry “Hank” Paulson was the CEO of Goldman Sachs for many years. He has too many friends in the financial sector as well as on Wall Street. The man should never have been selected by President G.W. Bush, but he was and at the time everyone thought it was a great idea.
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Why was it a great idea? Because at the time the markets were recovering from the tech bubble collapse in the Stock market. He was also one of the guys who help redesign the hedge funds (another reason we have this financial meltdown) as well as pushing the idea of sub-prime mortgages. The Democrats loved him because he was full-filling the “American Dream”, getting everyone into the house they wanted, no matter what.
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It’s now come to a point that he’s out-lived his usefulness in the Treasury Department. He’s been having press conference after conference in just the last couple of weeks that shows that he doesn’t even know what to do for the economy while still trying to help his cronies within the financial sector.
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I’m counting down the days until Paulson will be out of the position. The job will now fall on Obama’s choice for Secretary of Treasury. Timothy Geithner will fill that position next month. The man has a long history with the economy and the Treasury department as well as being in charge of the New York Federal Reserve. Timothy Geithner has made a name for himself on Wall Street and some of the rallying in the markets last week was most likely due to the decision.
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Unfortunately the rally the only last so long in what is now “officially” a recession. That’s right the news was released Monday. The economic advisors and experts have now made it official. Like anyone with a half a brain couldn’t see that two months ago.
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The markets typically show the signs of a recession before it actually is made official. With that in mind, it’s nice to think that a recession is usually 8-12 months long. Looking back the markets have been showing signs of it for at least four months, which means that we can be half way through this mess already.
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As I’ve been saying for the last to months, build up some capital (40%-60% of your portfolio) and wait for the right time to buy to build a new position in the stock market. That time is just about upon us, so I say when the DOW reaches 7500 points again, start putting your money to work behind all that research that you’ve been doing.

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GDP (Gross Domestic Product)

Today the GDP report was released and no one was surprised by the results. As a matter of fact the report shows that spending was pulled back the most in the last 28 years. A clear sign that a recession is close at hand if not here already.
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According to the Commerce Department on Tuesday, the GDP shrank at a 0.5% annual rate during the July-September quarter. The report shows that the economy had slowed due to the housing, credit as well as the financial issues that continue to intensify.
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GDP measures the value of all goods and services produced within the U.S. and is considered the best barometer of the country’s economic fitness. That is what we are lead to believe, but in all true intent and purpose, it doesn’t do that at all.
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The GDP (Gross Domestic Product) was not designed to be the indicator of this country’s growth. It was originally to gauge the country’s wartime production capacity. According to the GDP, no matter what the buying and selling is for it’s looked upon as something good for the economy. It does not matter it it’s for the well being of the people or not, it’s all lumped in together.
Let’s look at all the money that was spent after hurricane Katrina destroyed New Orleans. The $100+ billion that was spent was considered a good thing within the GDP report.
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It doesn’t matter what the money is spent on as long as it’s spent, that’s how the GDP looks upon it. Crime is also looked favorably when calculated into the report. What about social welfare and social issues? they too are considered a good thing for GDP. That’s right, all those lawsuit, divorces and car accidents, according to the GDP they are good things for the economy.
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That’s why a few years ago some people got together and came up with a new way to gauge our growth in the country. It’s called the GPI (Genuine Progress Indicator). I wrote a post called GDP Vs GPI a few months ago and seeing how the GDP report came out yesterday it just made me want to touch base on the article again for those who might have missed it.

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