New Home Sales Report For July

Yesterday the news came out that new home sales jumped 9.6% for the month of July. It was the fourth straight increase in sales. Sales rose to an annual rate of 433,000, up from June’s rate of 395,000. Many are saying that the bottom is definitely in and now is the time to buy, but is that really the case.
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Yes, sales are up more than 30% from the bottom in January, but nowhere near the peak of four years ago. Of course that’s was because of the inflated bubble that was created by the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac sub-prime loans.
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So does this really mean that the bottom is in and we can expect the economy to turn around? I doubt it. Why I think that is because of the fact that the numbers are (I feel) are mis-leading. Many of the new home sales that have been happening in the last month or so were first-time home buyers. That’s because of the government’s incentive plan for first-time homeowners who qualify for an $8000 tax credit. That in itself is misleading on the fact of it’s a tax credit, not a rebate. Which means of you don’t have enough of tax liability, you won’t be able to write off all of the $8000.
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What does that mean for the industry? Well, home builders saw a jump in their stock price today, but will it be able to maintain those levels? I doubt that too. mainly because when the program will be terminated at the end of November. I believe the market will dry up again with sales. As it is, some builders have already seen a dip in home sales. In Arizona, A.F. Sterling Homes stated that sales in July stalled because the builder couldn’t guarantee the homes would be completed in time to qualify. The industry (real estate agents and builders) are really leaning on Congress to extend the the credit on the grounds of the sales could reverse from their current trend. As a matter of fact, Randy Agron, the vice president of A.F. Sterling Homes was quoted as saying “The real estate market is really a fragile thing. It’s not the right time to take (the tax credit) away”.
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With that in mind, do you really think the bottom is in? It has been proven in the past that when the government gets involved with trying to “save” the economy, it actually extends it by not letting the free market follow it’s natural course. With this program as well as the financial bailouts and “Cash For Clunkers”, we have three major industries being manipulated within the American economy.
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All I can say is…hang on, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.

Tags: Economy, Financials, Foreclosure, Government spending, Investment property, Stock market news

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Solar Power Stocks Take A Beaten

In the last week or so the solar power companies have been getting down graded from several different analysts. The reasons vary from one another, but the message is still the same… stay away from the sector. The alternative energy sector has made some good gains in recent months, but then again almost everything has made gains since the lows of March.
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The leaders in the sector have really taken a turn down from where they were just a few months ago. First Solar Inc. (FSLR:NASDAQ) was as low as $100 in March climbing nearly 100% to it recent high of over $200 in May and has really taken a beaten since then.
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That’s not the only solar companies that has fallen out of flavor with the analysts. Typically when the price of oil starts to rise, the alternative energy sector gets some headwinds because of the fact that it makes cost effective sense to invest in the solar and wind power stocks. The problem here seems to be that the competitiveness of the sector has gotten really tight causing companies to cut back on their own pricing to compete with others in their market. Each of these companies are trying to get a bigger market share and to do so, pricing and profit will be taking a back seat at the moment.
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Here at Beating The Stock Market, I’ve been very positive about the alternative energy sector and have made plenty of money in trading these stocks. When news like this comes out from several different sources, I tend to stay away from the sector. Too much negative views on a sector does not sit well for me and I will wait and see before I jump back on board with solar or wind power stocks.

Tags: Alternative energy, Getting Started In The Stock Market, stock analysis, Stock market news

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Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd (NYSE:AEM)

Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd is up and running again today after they reported their second quarter earnings report. I’ve spoken about them in the past in regards to having a position and using a technique referred to as channel trading..
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Well so much for that idea now that the company has posted some good results and given some (in my opinion) great guidance. It will be some time before I’ll know what their new trading range will be. On top of all the news that AEM released, there have also been several analysts that raised the target price for Agnico Eagle.
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Yesterday when I saw the price dropping I put in a limit buy order at $52 per share. Unfortunately the low of the day was $52.17. I figured that I’ll just get the shares today at even a lower price, but when I was watching Mad Money with Jim Cramer, he had the CEO of Agnico Eagle on to discuss the report. I knew at that point the shares would go up in the pre-market and continue to do so throughout the day. So I had to put in a limit buy in for 54.00 (hoping that it would be a good bid) before the market opened and was lucky that it did trigger. I think we’ll see some great thing from this company in the next few quarters and I expect to make some great gains with this stock.
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Their two newest mines, Kittila and Lapa have achieved commercial production as well as their other mine Meadowbank and will be operational in the first quarter of 2010. If you haven’t jumped into Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd., do your research and maybe this can be a winner for you and your portfolio.
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Second quarter 2009 highlights include:
- Record Production – record gold production of 119,053 ounces. First gold poured at Pinos Altos in July
- Good Cost Performance – LaRonde, Goldex and Lapa achieve good
minesite cost performance
- Commercial Production At Lapa And Kittila – commercial production
achieved as of May 1 at both mines
- Remaining Two New Gold Mines On Schedule – Pinos Altos and Meadowbank remain on schedule for initial production in third quarter 2009 and first quarter 2010, respectively
- Growth profile bolstered – expected after-tax internal rate of return (“IRR”) of 76% at Goldex expansion and 17% at Pinos Altos expansion at Creston Mascota
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Happy trading.

Tags: Commodities, Earnings report, Getting Started In The Stock Market, Stock market for beginners, Stock market news, Stock trading

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The Dow At 9000, Where Do We Go From Here?

Who would have thought that this could have happened so soon? Either way, it was reached. The DOW close above 9000 (9069.29 to be exact). The S&P 500 has been on a tear, closing at 976.29. Lets not forget that the NASDAQ is now at 1973.60. The past two weeks of trading have been great for the markets.
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With that being said, what are we to expect in the coming weeks? If you’ve been listening to the talk on the street, you’ve heard both sides of the possibilities. “It’s only going to get higher” or “the markets are going to correct themselves”. Those are the only two choices.
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After listening to all the opinions that where flying today, I would have to agree that the markets are due for a correction. How can it not? I don’t know about you, but I don’t really see a reason to be all optimistic about the stock market. Add on to the fact that many traders and investors have made a lot of money in the last four months. There will be some profit taking very soon.
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With all the talk about health care and the Cap and Trade bill, if these two bills pass, corporations are going to find it hard to keep making the earnings that the investors want to see. The taxes that will be imposed onto these industries are going to break them as well as the country’s GDP.
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In the last few months I’ve made some great gains in the markets and I’m not willing to give them back anytime soon. At this time I’m sitting more than half my portfolio on the sidelines, while I wait for the other shoe to drop (and it will). Don’t get me wrong, I do believe that there will be some gains to be made in many other sectors and that’s why I’m watching the tech sector. They (tech sector) don’t have the government issues to deal with, like most of the others ones.
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Which ever way you plan on playing the markets in the coming weeks, do your due diligence.

Tags: Economy, Government spending, Investments, NASDAQ, Stock market news, Stock trading

Posted in Getting Started In The Stock Market, Government Involvement, Stock Market News | Leave A Comment »

Update On NRG Energy Inc. (NYSE:NRG)

What a difference a day makes. Last night I posted about NRG Energy Inc. (NYSE:NRG). A company that I’ve been trading for the last month or so. I’ve made some nice gains and I still feel the company’s stock will continue to rise considering the alternative energy needs in this country.
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Something that I did over look in the post is that NRG Energy is in a middle of a hostile take over bid from the country’s largest nuclear power company, Exelon (NYSE:EXC). In October, Exelon offered 0.485 of one of its shares for every NRG share. Many of the NRG investors were not pleased with the offer and stated that Exelon had to raise it’s bid for the independent power producer.
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News came out this morning that the company will raise it’s offer by about 12%. The issue is now is that NRG’s stock price has risen above the offering price from Exelon. So now Analyst are suggesting that it means that Exelon would most likely have to materially raise it’s bid to get NRG shareholders support.
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At the close of last night (July, 2009), Exelon’s stock price closed at $51.56, which puts it’s bid for NRG at $25.01 a share. NRG shares closed at $26.05 yesterday.
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NRG’s stock price opened Thursday at $25.30 and has dropped as low as $24.88. It has bounced back a little, but after today jobless claims and other economic data releases today. I don’t expect any stock to do really good today. We are going into a three day holiday weekend so let the rest of this eek play out on it’s on and see what bargains we’ll have next week.
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Happy Independence Day.