Here we go again. It looks like we’re in for another ride this week on Wall Street. The stock market lost over 500 points last week and on Monday, it gained 103 points. So what going on so far for this morning? Well the DOW opened flat, but was dropping fast as the opening minutes clicked by. Within twenty five minutes the DOW was down 180 points and since then has climbed it’s way back to only being down 36 points during it’s first forty five minutes into the trading day.
Either way you look at it, it’s going to be a wild ride for the rest of the year. I’m not confident on the condition of the stock markets and because of that, I’m sitting a lot of my money off to the side until the second dip happens sometime this year. We are not out of the woods yet and we are still in a lot of economic dangers in the near future.
Last night while watching Jim Cramer on Mad Money, I noticed that he is confident in the markets and sees some great things coming in the near future. The only thing I agree with him on is his opinion on investing in gold. Of course he didn’t say if you should own stocks in gold producing companies or in actually gold itself. My thoughts on that is that you should own gold coins and other gold items. Like I said, I don’t trust the condition of Wall Street and owning stocks in gold is not the same thing. Whatever you do, do your research into anything you’re going to invest in.
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After all this time that I’ve been saying that there is no good reason for the DOW and the rest of the markets to be as high as it is, we can see from the comments from the Federal Reserve, we are not bouncing back from the recovery as they and the Obama Administration have been trying to feed us for the last year. The Federal Reserve states that the economy is not growing as fast as they once thought. To make matters worse, the dollar is at a fifteen year low against the Yen.
In the first forty five minutes of trading today, the DOW is down 200 points. A sign that that investors and brokers are waking up to the realization of the fact that we are not out of the woods yet. NASDAQ is also down 54 points in the same amount of time. All together, each of the three idicies have lost roughly 2% in less than one hour.
Of course I expect the markets to jump back up, but that will be from the market makers trying to make some more profits on this sell off. The DOW has moved up to 10,700 i the last week and there should be some profit taking, but this drop is not going to end with a few people taking their profits. I feel that some will start weening out of the stock market in preparation of the correction we’ll see in the second half of this year.
If you are still looking for some trading action, because you love the game of the markets, I suggest that you learn and start shorting stocks and the overall market.
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Stock market volatility fluctuates all the time, some days more than others. Volatility in the markets grow as the gains increase along with those times when uncertainty rises.
Since the markets have risen as high as they did and the condition of the economy is still on shaky ground, I’m not surprised to see that the VIX (volatility index) jumped 20% in just one day. What does surprise me is the fact that it took so long for it to happen.
In the last fourteen months, the Dow Industrial Average (DJIA) has increased by nearly 80% and over 10% in the last three months. I’ve been saying for quite some time now about the fact that the DOW sitting at over 10,000 points has no real reason to be there. Of course many investors are still riding the wave as long as they can. Unfortunately many of them won’t see it coming when the markets take the next plunge.
Unemployment is at 12% (officially), but it is estimated to be at 17% since most people who were receiving unemployment benefits last year are no longer eligible. Many companies are holding off on hiring until they get a good look at the new tax laws that the present Administration has passed. Add on the fact that the foreclosures in the United States are not shrinking, instead they are holding steady in most areas.
The VIX is one of the indicators that should be watched on a regular basis as part of your stock market strategies. As the uncertainty in the markets rises, the VIX will climb. Many average investors lose money in the stock market as this happens because the price per share of most companies will rise and fall with large swings. If you are a veteran in trading stocks, most likely you’ve learned to read the VIX and play it accordingly.
For those who are not familiar with VIX, there are a few stock market books that will help you understand much better. In many of Jim Cramer books, you will find information about the volatility in the stock market and how to play it.
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