EI84mzk2E8AmuBYt0y5NY8kJU3M
nav-left cat-right
cat-right

The ADP Report Better Than Expected

The April ADP report was released today and it was better than expected. That doesn’t mean that it was all roses though. Many people are still losing their jobs, but not to the extent to where we could be. The report states that there was a decline of 491,000 compared to the 700,000 that the analysts were expecting. In the release, the March numbers were adjusted to 700,000 from the original number of 663,000.
.
This brings the unemployment rate to 8.9% from 8.5% last month. This makes it the highest unemployment rate since 1983.
.
All the signs of the stock market and the economy show that the bottom is coming (if not here already). The unemployment rate is the last thing to change course. We can expect to see the unemployment rate get as high as 10%, but as that happens the economy will improve.
.
In the meantime the stock market has made some great strides this week again. Seeing the DOW at 8500 is nice, but can it stay that way or will it drop down to the 7000 level once more before we really get get back on track. The S&P 500 closed over 900 points and to think of it dropping down below eight hundred is not something that most analysts are predicting.
.
Either way I’m keeping a watchful eye on the markets as I continue to be a trader and not an investor. Yesterday was a great example. when the market opened, the trend was pointing downward. I sold out of my positions in the morning and jumped back into the same ones right before the close of the day. In some cases I bought the same shares back at 15% less than the price I sold them at earlier in the day.
.
Two of the stocks were
Sirius (NASDAQ: SIRI) sold at 0.52 per share, bought back at 0.42
Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) sold at $40.75 per share, bought back at $38
.
*DISCLAIMER* Billy has holdings in Sirius and Caterpillar at the time of this being posted.

Related posts

Are The Bulls Charging?

The stock markets have been on a tear for the last three weeks or so it seems. In the last fourteen trading days the DOW has finished in the green for ten of those days. Even though the DOW sit at 8761.42 and was as high as 9000 on Monday, there has been a charge from the bulls that makes you wonder if we have reached the bottom.
.
I don’t believe we have, but I do like to think that we did.
.
The commodity sector had a beautiful day today and that typically shows that the bottom is near if not here. Basic materials as a whole gained over 5% today with coal leading the way with a gain of over 15%. It goes to show you that the analyst and the “expert” either don’t know what’s going on or that they are not telling us average traders everything. I’ve listened for the last month to them report that commodities are in the tank and will remain there for sometime. So why the rally today? I wish I knew.
.
The steel industry has been dropping like a lead balloon, but Cliff Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE:CLF) gained 18% today and is up nearly 38% in just one week. Steel Dynamics Inc. (NASDAQ:STLD) gained 15% today and is also up nearly 60% for the week.

With signs and gains like these, one would think the worst is behind us.
.
In the last two weeks we’ve heard that the recession is officially here, so I’m lead to believe that it’s not over. I’m expect a big pull back in these prices as the profit takers come in and remove so of their capital. I’m also looking for the DOW to drop back to the 8000 level in the near future.
.
If my readers have any insight to share, please do so in the comments to help enlighten me in any way.

Related posts

Ethanol And Alternative Energy

stock market
photo by plan my green

.
Now with the price of oil being down over 60% since it’s July high of $147 per barrel, it seems that ethanol and other alternative energy sources have fallen out of flavor with investors. It was obvious to see that we needed to find other means to supply our fuel needs when we were paying $4.11 per gallon of gas (national average July 7, 2008), but with the price of gas now at $1.89 (Nov. 24,2008) people and investors are being blinded by how cheap it is at the moment.
.
Ethanol is a fuel source that is derived from corn. A fuel source that has been in use for many years. Unfortunately, it has cause the price of corn to be very volatile and may cause a food shortage if we’re not careful.
.
Other alternative energies consist of wind, solar, nuclear and natural gas. All of which we can produce and manufactured in our own backyard without the assistance of foreign countries.
.
The problem is that with the price of oil falling to where it was in March 2007, it has made the idea of alternative energies less competitive. The credit crisis has also made it even harder to get the funding that is needed to expand on these ideas.
T.Boone Pickens plan of have a major wind farm built in Texas has been delayed because of the lack of financial lending.
.
It now seems that President-elect Obama is getting on board with Mr Pickens and his ideas to free this country from the dependency of foreign oils. Word is spreading that within the next stimulus package, alternative energies will be added in.
.
Out of the choices that were listed in this post, ethanol is the one that Obama is favoring the most. If that’s the case, ethanol stocks may be something that might interest you. I do not recommend any ethanol stocks because of what is going on with the industry. VeraSun Corp. (NASDAQ:VSE) has filed bankruptcy last week and it’s leading competitor Poet LLC, a private held company is looking to acquire them.

Related posts

Sell-Off’s And Rallies


photo by petrick2008

.
As we see with the way the stock market performed today, the sell-off kicks back into high gear. Investors are still concerned about the condition of the economy no matter who won the election.
.
The rally that took place over the last week in alternative energy was erased today with the sell off. First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR) which was up $70 in the past week gave back $24 (-13%) in today’s trading.
The rest of the sector did just as bad with Suntech Power Holdings (NYSE: STP) taking the biggest hit of almost 21%. Suntech was trading last week at $11 and gained almost 90% before today’s beat-down. The one stock in the sector that escaped the abuse of today was Biofuel Energy Corp (NASDAQ:BIOF) which gained just over 28%, take in mind though that this stock is a penny stock and gains like that are quite common.
.
In the financial area of the stock market, the sector was another wash-out with nearly if not all of the stocks lost ground. Out of the ones that I really keep an eye on, the best performers still lost over 5%.
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp. (NYSE:AGM), a stock that I’ve talked about before here on this blog took the biggest hit, losing over 25%. Last week the stock traded as low as $2.85 (where I picked up 200 shares) and yesterday hit an intraday high of $8.40, a gain of almost 200% in just a few days.
.
I’ve been saying it for some time now, but you need to be ready for when the stock market will turn (good or bad). If I didn’t sell out of AGM when I did, I would have lost some great gains. Don’t get me wrong, I did keep some shares (since I’m now trading with their money). When you get big gains like the one I just spoke about, you need to remember not to be greedy and SELL.
.
*DISCLAIMER* At the time of this post Billy is long AGM and has no position in FSLR, BIOF and STP

Related posts

Great Rally After The Selloff

Today the DOW had one of it’s top 6 days in history after it’s worst week in it’s 112 year history. Everybody is jumping for joy and looking forward to the rest of the week. But let’s be real, I said in my earlier post this morning that the markets don’t turn around this quickly.
.
We still have a lot of work to do before we can reap the rewards of what has been done in the financial sector over the last few weeks. I’m very happy from today’s gains, but I’m realistic in the fact that this has to come down from profit takers within the next few days. With my interest in Morgan Stanley, my portfolio is up an average of 25% today.
.
What we witnessed today was investors and traders getting in on some great deals after a major sell off last week. Most of the trading wasn’t based on fundamental, but on the fact that many hedge funds and other entities were trying to raise capitol and cover margin calls. no matter what you were invested in (except GE and ABX), you made some big gains.
.
If you are up in any stocks at this time, you might wnat to think of taking some off the table for when we will have a down day (and believe me, we will have one soon). It’s better to miss out on some short term gains than to lose out on the ones that you made already.
.

DOW @9,387.61 +936.42 (+11.08%
NASDAQ @1,844.25 +197.74 (+11.1%)
S&P 500 @1.003.35 +104.13 (+11.58%)
Oil $81.85 (+$4.15)

Hang in there and happy trading.

Related posts

Agricultural Stocks – Converted Organics Inc...

Agricultural stocks have been a big winner over the last year or so. The leaders of the sector are Potash, Monsanto and Mosaic which have had great returns for their shareholders except for the ones that bought and held on to the stocks during that period. These stocks as well as the sector have come back down to their levels of last December.
.
With the way the markets have been performing, it has caused the entire sector to pull back to levels that can’t be ignored. On September 8th these three Stocks have hit their lows of the year and what should be a great entry point back into them. Their fundamentals are still strong and should be a great buy. About two months ago Jim Cramer of Mad Money said that these stock are out of favor with the street, but I beg to differ.
.
What really caught my eye last month was Converted Organics Inc, a stock that I’ve been in before and made some money. When the stock fell below $4 per share I decided to jump back in, but instead of buying ticker symbol: COIN, I looked at their other symbol: COINZ Converted Organic CL B WRTS which has basically mirrored the parent stock. I bought into the stock at $2 a share and in the first two days it did drop $.25 where it hasn’t looked back since. In the last three weeks it has gone up over 250%, I don’t know about you, but those are the types of quick returns I love to see. The company has continued to make deals and grow. They reported that their revenue grew in the second quarter. In their press release dated August 13, 2008 the president Edward J. Gildea said “We are very pleased to report that Converted Organics’ revenue almost doubled from first quarter to second quarter of 2008, and we look forward to updating Converted Organics shareholders on the status of their business, We are very pleased with the Company’s progress thus far in 2008, and we are optimistic about future potential.”
.
As for myself, I too am very pleased with the reports that have been released and enjoy the gains that I’m having so far.
At the present time the only stock of this group that I own is COINZ, but I am waiting for another pull back from the other three and do plan to get in at that time.
Before buying any stocks that I’ve spoken about in this post, please do your homework to see if this invest is right for you.

Related posts

The DOW And NASDAQ

The NASDAQ has been on a tear for the last four weeks. The NASDAQ closed at 2212 on July 14 2008. Now it has climbed it way up to 2439 where it closed today.
In the last four weeks the Dow has also had a good ride. During the same period, the DOW started at 11,055 to climb to an almost two month high of 11,862 this afternoon and closed at 11,782.
.
Jump back one month…
Oil on the run.
Oil hits an all-time high of $147
Our belief is that oil will not back off anytime soon.
Analyst say that $200 is clearly in view now.
Congress calls for the top brass of the big five oil companies.
The DOW falls below 11,000
.
These were the stories that we heard all day long in the mainstream media. It looked like there was no end in sight.
.
.
Oil drops below $114.
Oil tumbles over 20%
Dollar gains strength
Congress still on vacation.
Dow closes at 11,782.
.
What the hell happened? In the second half of that period, it turned around. For how long will this continue? I don’t know, This might just be a big bounce that’s about to come back down.
There seems to be a lot of doom and gloom still out there. The markets overall are up, Fannie and Freddie are struggling, the dollar is gaining, Commodities are down. Consumer confidence is down and the foreclosure rate is holding steady.
.
Go figure.
What’s your take on this story? Please leave a comment and let me know.

Related posts

Sirius (NASDAQ: SIRI) Earnings Report

Sirius/XM Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) released their 2nd quarter earnings (which is their last one as a single entity. The report was better than what the street was expecting by about 15%, but because of the foggy outlook by CEO Mel Karmazin the stock fell $.05 today in trading.
.
Late last month I reported that the Sirius/XM merger was approved by the slow and corrupted FCC (in my opinion, I don’t want to be sued for slander). Sirius closed the merger with rival XM Satellite Radio late last month, has reported a loss of $83.9 million, or 6 cents a share, in the first quarter ended June 30. Compared to a year ago, when the company shed $134.1 million, or 9 cents a share. If you exclude the one time items that were related to stock-based compensation, the Sirius unit had a loss of 5 cents a share. The street was expecting a loss of 7 cents a share, according to Thomson Reuters.
.
Total revenue rose to $283 million, up 25% from the same quarter a year earlier, slightly above the forecast of $282.7 million.
.
During the conference call, Karmazin took time to address the decline in the share price even in the wake of the merger completion.
.
“We are well aware that the stock price has suffered. I am not pleased with the market reaction,” he said. “We know we have a great deal of work to do to have shareholders feel the same way as our other stakeholders feel and we take that responsibility very seriously.”
.
Karmazin stated that the hard work was behind them, now that the merger has been completed. Sirius/XM can now focus completely on achieving profitability. No timeline as to when the company would see their first profitable quarter.
.
Karmazin also said that Sirius XM will offer the first interoperable radios well before the deadline that was put forth by the FCC, which will pass in nine months. Karmazin added that having an interoperable radio at retail would help eliminate consumers’ confusion over which receiver to purchase. However, as automakers decide what gets installed in their vehicles, it could take three years or more until interoperable radios are available in cars(there’s the foggy part).

In its earnings release, Sirius said it ended the quarter with 8.92 million subscribers.
.
Combined with XM’s 9.65 million listeners, that gives the new post-merger company 18.5 million subscribers
.
On the positive side, subscriber acquisition costs shrank 27% to $78 from $107 last year.

Related posts

Apple, A Possible Buying Opportunity.

Photobucket
.
photo be hotblack
.

Apple(NASDAQ: AAPL) beat Wall Street’s third-quarter expectations which was expected but the company’s guidance for the this quarter seems to be below what the street was hoping to see from the tech giant.
.
The company said today that it earned $1.07 billion, or $1.19 a share, in the third quarter, compared with a profit of $818 million, or 92 cents a share, a year earlier.
.
Revenue climbed to $7.46 billion from $5.41 billion a year ago.

The average expectation from analysts was $1.08 eps which beats the street by about 9%
.
For the fourth quarter, Apple stated that they expect revenue of $7.8 billion and earnings of $1 a share. Analysts were expecting revenue of $8.32 billion and earnings of $1.24 a share.
.
That’s enough of the technical mumbo-jumbo. What I see is a great buying opportunity. The shares are down in after market trading to $148.50(@6:00pm) which is an 11% drop from where it closed today and may continue to drop a little more. As you may know that this is the company that has just released it’s new iphone on July 11th and Apple has said that they sold over 1 million of them in the first three days. The ipods are still selling at the same rate for some time now and with the younger generation having more than one each, I can’t see this stock staying anywhere near this level when they report again. It also looks like the MAC is making a comeback.

Related posts

Energy Conversion Devices Inc. (ENER)

Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (Nasdaq: ENER) manufactures and sells thin-film solar laminates that convert sunlight to energy using proprietary technology. Distributed globally under the UNI-SOLAR® brand, the company’s products are ideally suited for cost-effective solutions for roofing applications because they are lightweight, durable, flexible, can be integrated directly with building materials, and generate more energy in real-world conditions.

ECD also pioneers other alternative technologies, including a new type of nonvolatile digital memory technology that is significantly faster and less expensive, ideal for use in a variety of applications, including cell phones, digital cameras and personal computers.

quoted from their website. ECD ovonic

This is a stock that I’ve been following since December 2007 when the price was in the mid $20 range. The company has been doing the right thing in the first half of 2008 & I’m confident that it will continue for some time. Unfortunately the rest of the economy is looking horrible & the market is taken a beaten. The profit takers(including myself) have caused the price to correct itself to a point to where I will be getting back into the stock. The cost basis that I’m looking at is $62-$65 range, I know this stock in due time will be on a tear toward $100 & beyond. In the meantime I’ll be watching for the dips for me to buy more.

Remember to not buy all of your position at once. Sit back & expect pull-backs, where you will pick up more incrementally. The stock will be going up in due time, just be patient & enjoy the ride.

Related posts