Beating The Stock Market » NASDAQ

Trading Solutions That Can Help

billy — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 12:00:11 +0000

The three indicies lost just over 1% each on Tuesday. The DOW slipped 96.50 points to close at 9241.45, the S&P 500 shed 12.75 dropping below 1000, and the NASDAQ finished the day at 1969.73 after losing 22.51 points. There were some great gains in some stocks even with the down day.
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The financial sector was the worst of the bunch today. I’m glad that I’ve pulled out of that sector a couple of days ago. I’ll wait for a healthy pull-back and jump in again.
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When I sit on the sidelines waiting to jump back in, I sometimes use the time to try some investing programs I’ve come across.
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One that I recently checked out is the free analysis trading software package from Trading Solutions. It can learn patterns from historical data and allows you to create trading systems that suggest when to buy and sell. The software works with stocks, futures, currencies (FOREX) and many other financial instruments.
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Download Trading Solutions and try it for free. Let me know what you think. As I continue playing around with it, I’ll report back on how I like it.

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The Dow At 9000, Where Do We Go From Here?

billy — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 12:04:07 +0000

Who would have thought that this could have happened so soon? Either way, it was reached. The DOW close above 9000 (9069.29 to be exact). The S&P 500 has been on a tear, closing at 976.29. Lets not forget that the NASDAQ is now at 1973.60. The past two weeks of trading have been great for the markets.
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With that being said, what are we to expect in the coming weeks? If you’ve been listening to the talk on the street, you’ve heard both sides of the possibilities. “It’s only going to get higher” or “the markets are going to correct themselves”. Those are the only two choices.
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After listening to all the opinions that where flying today, I would have to agree that the markets are due for a correction. How can it not? I don’t know about you, but I don’t really see a reason to be all optimistic about the stock market. Add on to the fact that many traders and investors have made a lot of money in the last four months. There will be some profit taking very soon.
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With all the talk about health care and the Cap and Trade bill, if these two bills pass, corporations are going to find it hard to keep making the earnings that the investors want to see. The taxes that will be imposed onto these industries are going to break them as well as the country’s GDP.
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In the last few months I’ve made some great gains in the markets and I’m not willing to give them back anytime soon. At this time I’m sitting more than half my portfolio on the sidelines, while I wait for the other shoe to drop (and it will). Don’t get me wrong, I do believe that there will be some gains to be made in many other sectors and that’s why I’m watching the tech sector. They (tech sector) don’t have the government issues to deal with, like most of the others ones.
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Which ever way you plan on playing the markets in the coming weeks, do your due diligence.

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Research In Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM)

billy — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 13:30:45 +0000

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Yesterday I spoke about building a position in Research In Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM). My first buy-in was at $76.25 when the price dropped. Share price opened this morning at $77.86 and within the first five minutes of trading, it was up to $78.40. Unfortunately that was as high as it would go. Minutes later it fell to $76.13, where it would continue to bounce within that range.
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Research In Motion was scheduled to release their first quarter earnings report after the closing bell today. I was looking for some more upward motion from other traders getting on board in expectation of RIMM beating the street.
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Shortly after the bell, RIMM released their report. RIMM earned $1.12 per share for the first quarter on revenue of $3.42 billion, compared with $482.5 million or 84 cents on revenue of $2.24 billion a year earlier. Included in the results were non-recurring items. $96.4 million relating to certain employee tax liabilities along with a gain of 175.1 million primarily as a result of the enactment of functional currency tax rules. While the analysts were only expecting $0.94 on revenue of $3.43 billion, RIMM earned $0.98 per share.
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What I didn’t expect was after the company beating expectation by $0.04, the stock dropped more than 6% in after market trading. By the time after hour trading was done, the stock moved back up to $76.06, just off by 0.5% from where it closed at 4:00pm today.
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One thing that I wish I was able to do was to buy more shares when it fell to $73 shortly after the release. In April, Rimm beat expectation by 7% and since then the stock price has moved up 55%. Today they beat it by more than 4% and it moved no where today. Many investors and traders were looking for more and the knee-jerk reaction was to sell. The more they were looking for was in RIMM’s second quarter guidance. RIMM”S range for earning in the next quarter is $0.94 to $1.03 per share on revenue of $3.45-$3.70 billion. The mean analyst estimate is for 97 cents on revenue of $3.61 billion. After the conference call, I guess people realized it wasn’t as bad as it originally sounded.
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With the information I have on this company, I believe that RIMM is still fundamentlly sound and will continue to grow. I will continue to buy into RIMM under $80, after that I will sit back and watch the gains from this great company with a fantastic product. The BlackBerry is a great smartphone with many different applications to do the things you want to do. As a matter of fact RIMM just released their latest BlackBerry model, the Tour, earlier this week.
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Jim Cramer doesn’t call this company one of the four horseman of the tech sector for nothing.

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Another Day In The Stock Market

billy — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 17:54:35 +0000

With the economy the way it is right now along with the volatility in the stock market, If you have the ability to trade stocks on a daily basis (day trader) or even holding for a day or so, you can make some money without really trying.
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You will still have to do your homework and research on the companies that you want to invest in, but if you have a list of stocks that you’re very familiar with, playing the volatility is quite profitable.
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Yesterday I spoke about building position in the companies that you want to invest in. When the markets were at their lows, I started to do so. I actually picked up some at good prices, even though I would have like them to come down some more. I told you in the past to buy in increments, not all at once. If the price did continue to fall yesterday, I would have bought more later on.
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I bought Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) @ $134.75, Joy Global (NASDAQ:JOYG) @ $34, Research In Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM) @ $76.25 and last, but not least, Sirius Satellite Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) @ $0.325. I expected prices to bounce back up yesterday as well as a little bit more of a gain today. I was right only three of the four trades I did. This morning I waited for the opening to see what I was going to sell. At the opening bell, Sirius was up to $0.43 per share and after the negative news about their downgrade, I expected it to drop down below $0.40. I put in a limit sell order for $0.425 and it sold shortly afterward. A gain of 30% over night. To be honest I was planning to hold on the Sirius for the long term (until their next earnings report ), but when I was up that much, I sold it and will continue on the next dip.
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As for Apple, I was also able to sell my shares at $138, for a gain of 2.5%. I know that isn’t much to boast about, but if you think that you can’t even get that on a basic 12 month CD these days. Take into consideration that I did buy large amounts of share that help offset the fees that were charged to me. Joy Global was the last on I sold this morning. I sold it at $36.50 per share, for another gain of 7.3%.
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As for RIMM, I didn’t get the action I wanted, but that’s OK since I do expect that to run into the $100 range in the coming months. I will continue to hold on to the share and add to my position.
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You need to take advantage of the opportunities when they present themselves, so if you are able to trade on a daily basis, good luck.

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The Stock Market Is Getting Ready For Another Run Up

billy — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 14:48:40 +0000

Here we are again going through another correction in the markets. The three indicies have dropped over the past week off their seven month high and I’m not surprised. Over the last three months the markets have been on a tear coming off their lows. I mentioned before about how the markets wouldn’t be able to continue these gains without some sort of correction and profit taking.
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Even though I’ve been waiting for this pull back for some time, I did expect it. I will say that the markets aren’t as weak as I thought. I no longer expect to see the DOW reach 7000 again. As a matter of fact I don’t think it will get below 7800.
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The word on the street is that there is a large amount of money sitting on the sidelines waiting to jump back in, which means that once investors and traders feel that the waters a safe enough to come back in, it will help the markets rebound even more. Yesterday I heard that many of the hedge fund managers are already invested in and that they don’t have much capital not isn’t in the markets. The report stated that they are concerned that they may miss the next surge in the markets and they don’t want to be caught sitting it out.
If that’s the case, it can also be said that if they get skittish and pull their money out to avoid another big loss, we will see the 7800 level on the DOW.
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I don’t think so on the latter issue because the housing market is showing signs of stabilization, as well as the financial sector. Jim Cramer last night even had a segment in regards to the housing bottom. Since last August he has been saying that the housing bottom would be around June 30th of this year. Well, he ripped the board down and said that after yesterday’s housing number were the third straight month that they have improved. Other indicators are looking good too.
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With that in mind, I will start building positions in the stocks that I’ve been watching for sometime. Over the next two weeks, I will be looking at Apple, JP Morgan, Research In Motion and Agnico Eagle Mines. Of course there are others that I do like, but I would want more of a pull back before jumping on board with them.
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If you’re looking to take advantage of some free advice from Jim Cramer (besides his TV show), Check out his Action Alerts program that he’s always mentioning on his show. I’ve been a member for over a year and find some sound information from him, along with some great picks. Follow the link for a two week free trial of his Action Alerts subscription.
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The ADP Report Better Than Expected

billy — Fri, 08 May 2009 15:33:05 +0000

The April ADP report was released today and it was better than expected. That doesn’t mean that it was all roses though. Many people are still losing their jobs, but not to the extent to where we could be. The report states that there was a decline of 491,000 compared to the 700,000 that the analysts were expecting. In the release, the March numbers were adjusted to 700,000 from the original number of 663,000.
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This brings the unemployment rate to 8.9% from 8.5% last month. This makes it the highest unemployment rate since 1983.
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All the signs of the stock market and the economy show that the bottom is coming (if not here already). The unemployment rate is the last thing to change course. We can expect to see the unemployment rate get as high as 10%, but as that happens the economy will improve.
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In the meantime the stock market has made some great strides this week again. Seeing the DOW at 8500 is nice, but can it stay that way or will it drop down to the 7000 level once more before we really get get back on track. The S&P 500 closed over 900 points and to think of it dropping down below eight hundred is not something that most analysts are predicting.
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Either way I’m keeping a watchful eye on the markets as I continue to be a trader and not an investor. Yesterday was a great example. when the market opened, the trend was pointing downward. I sold out of my positions in the morning and jumped back into the same ones right before the close of the day. In some cases I bought the same shares back at 15% less than the price I sold them at earlier in the day.
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Two of the stocks were
Sirius (NASDAQ: SIRI) sold at 0.52 per share, bought back at 0.42
Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) sold at $40.75 per share, bought back at $38
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*DISCLAIMER* Billy has holdings in Sirius and Caterpillar at the time of this being posted.

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Are The Bulls Charging?

billy — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 05:34:42 +0000

The stock markets have been on a tear for the last three weeks or so it seems. In the last fourteen trading days the DOW has finished in the green for ten of those days. Even though the DOW sit at 8761.42 and was as high as 9000 on Monday, there has been a charge from the bulls that makes you wonder if we have reached the bottom.
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I don’t believe we have, but I do like to think that we did.
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The commodity sector had a beautiful day today and that typically shows that the bottom is near if not here. Basic materials as a whole gained over 5% today with coal leading the way with a gain of over 15%. It goes to show you that the analyst and the “expert” either don’t know what’s going on or that they are not telling us average traders everything. I’ve listened for the last month to them report that commodities are in the tank and will remain there for sometime. So why the rally today? I wish I knew.
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The steel industry has been dropping like a lead balloon, but Cliff Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE:CLF) gained 18% today and is up nearly 38% in just one week. Steel Dynamics Inc. (NASDAQ:STLD) gained 15% today and is also up nearly 60% for the week.

With signs and gains like these, one would think the worst is behind us.
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In the last two weeks we’ve heard that the recession is officially here, so I’m lead to believe that it’s not over. I’m expect a big pull back in these prices as the profit takers come in and remove so of their capital. I’m also looking for the DOW to drop back to the 8000 level in the near future.
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If my readers have any insight to share, please do so in the comments to help enlighten me in any way.

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Ethanol And Alternative Energy

billy — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 04:05:12 +0000

photo by plan my green
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Now with the price of oil being down over 60% since it’s July high of $147 per barrel, it seems that ethanol and other alternative energy sources have fallen out of flavor with investors. It was obvious to see that we needed to find other means to supply our fuel needs when we were paying $4.11 per gallon of gas (national average July 7, 2008), but with the price of gas now at $1.89 (Nov. 24,2008) people and investors are being blinded by how cheap it is at the moment.
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Ethanol is a fuel source that is derived from corn. A fuel source that has been in use for many years. Unfortunately, it has cause the price of corn to be very volatile and may cause a food shortage if we’re not careful.
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Other alternative energies consist of wind, solar, nuclear and natural gas. All of which we can produce and manufactured in our own backyard without the assistance of foreign countries.
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The problem is that with the price of oil falling to where it was in March 2007, it has made the idea of alternative energies less competitive. The credit crisis has also made it even harder to get the funding that is needed to expand on these ideas.
T.Boone Pickens plan of have a major wind farm built in Texas has been delayed because of the lack of financial lending.
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It now seems that President-elect Obama is getting on board with Mr Pickens and his ideas to free this country from the dependency of foreign oils. Word is spreading that within the next stimulus package, alternative energies will be added in.
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Out of the choices that were listed in this post, ethanol is the one that Obama is favoring the most. If that’s the case, ethanol stocks may be something that might interest you. I do not recommend any ethanol stocks because of what is going on with the industry. VeraSun Corp. (NASDAQ:VSE) has filed bankruptcy last week and it’s leading competitor Poet LLC, a private held company is looking to acquire them.

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Sell-Off’s And Rallies

billy — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 21:59:27 +0000

photo by petrick2008
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As we see with the way the stock market performed today, the sell-off kicks back into high gear. Investors are still concerned about the condition of the economy no matter who won the election.
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The rally that took place over the last week in alternative energy was erased today with the sell off. First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR) which was up $70 in the past week gave back $24 (-13%) in today’s trading.
The rest of the sector did just as bad with Suntech Power Holdings (NYSE: STP) taking the biggest hit of almost 21%. Suntech was trading last week at $11 and gained almost 90% before today’s beat-down. The one stock in the sector that escaped the abuse of today was Biofuel Energy Corp (NASDAQ:BIOF) which gained just over 28%, take in mind though that this stock is a penny stock and gains like that are quite common.
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In the financial area of the stock market, the sector was another wash-out with nearly if not all of the stocks lost ground. Out of the ones that I really keep an eye on, the best performers still lost over 5%.
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp. (NYSE:AGM), a stock that I’ve talked about before here on this blog took the biggest hit, losing over 25%. Last week the stock traded as low as $2.85 (where I picked up 200 shares) and yesterday hit an intraday high of $8.40, a gain of almost 200% in just a few days.
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I’ve been saying it for some time now, but you need to be ready for when the stock market will turn (good or bad). If I didn’t sell out of AGM when I did, I would have lost some great gains. Don’t get me wrong, I did keep some shares (since I’m now trading with their money). When you get big gains like the one I just spoke about, you need to remember not to be greedy and SELL.
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*DISCLAIMER* At the time of this post Billy is long AGM and has no position in FSLR, BIOF and STP

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Great Rally After The Selloff

billy — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 21:21:21 +0000

Today the DOW had one of it’s top 6 days in history after it’s worst week in it’s 112 year history. Everybody is jumping for joy and looking forward to the rest of the week. But let’s be real, I said in my earlier post this morning that the markets don’t turn around this quickly.
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We still have a lot of work to do before we can reap the rewards of what has been done in the financial sector over the last few weeks. I’m very happy from today’s gains, but I’m realistic in the fact that this has to come down from profit takers within the next few days. With my interest in Morgan Stanley, my portfolio is up an average of 25% today.
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What we witnessed today was investors and traders getting in on some great deals after a major sell off last week. Most of the trading wasn’t based on fundamental, but on the fact that many hedge funds and other entities were trying to raise capitol and cover margin calls. no matter what you were invested in (except GE and ABX), you made some big gains.
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If you are up in any stocks at this time, you might wnat to think of taking some off the table for when we will have a down day (and believe me, we will have one soon). It’s better to miss out on some short term gains than to lose out on the ones that you made already.
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DOW @9,387.61 +936.42 (+11.08%
NASDAQ @1,844.25 +197.74 (+11.1%)
S&P 500 @1.003.35 +104.13 (+11.58%)
Oil $81.85 (+$4.15)

Hang in there and happy trading.

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