New Home Sales Report For July

Yesterday the news came out that new home sales jumped 9.6% for the month of July. It was the fourth straight increase in sales. Sales rose to an annual rate of 433,000, up from June’s rate of 395,000. Many are saying that the bottom is definitely in and now is the time to buy, but is that really the case.
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Yes, sales are up more than 30% from the bottom in January, but nowhere near the peak of four years ago. Of course that’s was because of the inflated bubble that was created by the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac sub-prime loans.
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So does this really mean that the bottom is in and we can expect the economy to turn around? I doubt it. Why I think that is because of the fact that the numbers are (I feel) are mis-leading. Many of the new home sales that have been happening in the last month or so were first-time home buyers. That’s because of the government’s incentive plan for first-time homeowners who qualify for an $8000 tax credit. That in itself is misleading on the fact of it’s a tax credit, not a rebate. Which means of you don’t have enough of tax liability, you won’t be able to write off all of the $8000.
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What does that mean for the industry? Well, home builders saw a jump in their stock price today, but will it be able to maintain those levels? I doubt that too. mainly because when the program will be terminated at the end of November. I believe the market will dry up again with sales. As it is, some builders have already seen a dip in home sales. In Arizona, A.F. Sterling Homes stated that sales in July stalled because the builder couldn’t guarantee the homes would be completed in time to qualify. The industry (real estate agents and builders) are really leaning on Congress to extend the the credit on the grounds of the sales could reverse from their current trend. As a matter of fact, Randy Agron, the vice president of A.F. Sterling Homes was quoted as saying “The real estate market is really a fragile thing. It’s not the right time to take (the tax credit) away”.
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With that in mind, do you really think the bottom is in? It has been proven in the past that when the government gets involved with trying to “save” the economy, it actually extends it by not letting the free market follow it’s natural course. With this program as well as the financial bailouts and “Cash For Clunkers”, we have three major industries being manipulated within the American economy.
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All I can say is…hang on, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.

Tags: Economy, Financials, Foreclosure, Government spending, Investment property, Stock market news

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The Dow At 9000, Where Do We Go From Here?

Who would have thought that this could have happened so soon? Either way, it was reached. The DOW close above 9000 (9069.29 to be exact). The S&P 500 has been on a tear, closing at 976.29. Lets not forget that the NASDAQ is now at 1973.60. The past two weeks of trading have been great for the markets.
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With that being said, what are we to expect in the coming weeks? If you’ve been listening to the talk on the street, you’ve heard both sides of the possibilities. “It’s only going to get higher” or “the markets are going to correct themselves”. Those are the only two choices.
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After listening to all the opinions that where flying today, I would have to agree that the markets are due for a correction. How can it not? I don’t know about you, but I don’t really see a reason to be all optimistic about the stock market. Add on to the fact that many traders and investors have made a lot of money in the last four months. There will be some profit taking very soon.
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With all the talk about health care and the Cap and Trade bill, if these two bills pass, corporations are going to find it hard to keep making the earnings that the investors want to see. The taxes that will be imposed onto these industries are going to break them as well as the country’s GDP.
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In the last few months I’ve made some great gains in the markets and I’m not willing to give them back anytime soon. At this time I’m sitting more than half my portfolio on the sidelines, while I wait for the other shoe to drop (and it will). Don’t get me wrong, I do believe that there will be some gains to be made in many other sectors and that’s why I’m watching the tech sector. They (tech sector) don’t have the government issues to deal with, like most of the others ones.
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Which ever way you plan on playing the markets in the coming weeks, do your due diligence.

Tags: Economy, Government spending, Investments, NASDAQ, Stock market news, Stock trading

Posted in Getting Started In The Stock Market, Government Involvement, Stock Market News | Leave A Comment »

Second Quarter Earnings Report Season

It’s that time of year again that comes every three months. That’s right, it’s time for earnings reports. Alcoa (NYSE:AA) is the first company to come out with their results for the second quarter for 2009 (actually it’s just that they are the biggest company to report). Alcoa will release their report after the closing bell on Wednesday July 8th.
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After last week’s debauchery, who really know what to expect. I not expecting anything good from any one company, so I will be watching the companies that I favor to buy on the dips. I’ve again back out of a lot of the positions I had in the past couple of weeks, so I’m in a good position to pick up some of the companies I was in at a lower price. Unfortunately, I’m not all that comfortable with the way the government and the Federal Reserve are handling things right now, that I just might sit out for the next month or so.
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Of course with me doing that, I just may miss out on some great moves, but when in doubt, sit it out.
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On Thursday the DOW lost 223 points. It started off bad in the morning and was pretty much steady all day until the end when the rest of it fell out. The whole week was trading on light volume, which makes it hard to really see which way the markets could have gone. It’s not easy to get a feel for the markets during a holiday week.
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I will wait until tuesday to get a feel for the market tread, but the way the markets have been lately, it’s doesn’t stay one way or the other for long. Take your time and do your research carefully, like you should do all the time.

Tags: Earnings report, Economy, Federal Reserve, Government spending, NYSE, Stock Market, Stock market for beginners, Stock trading

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Finance, Energy And Politics, Oh My

It seems that the stock market doesn’t react the way it should when important economic news is released. Over the last two months there has been negative news reports released that would normally cause the indicies to drop, but instead they have responded in the opposite manner.
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The same goes for the good news that is also released. Look at how the news came out yesterday about the billions of dollars that will be paid back by ten of the major banks. You would think that the news would make investors and traders want to invest in these companies, making the price rise, well it’s wasn’t the case. As a sidebar comment, It amazes me that the money isn’t being returned to the Fed’s, instead it will be held by the Treasury Department just in case it will be needed again. My opinion is that the money will be used in the department’s slush fund and never returned to the tax payer.
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The talk is out again about drilling in the Gulf of Mexico. The talks should have never halted. How are we to ever take control of our economy if we are depending on foreign countries to supply us with our energy needs? Oil is abundant in the gulf and we are not taking advantage of it, but I guess it’s OK since Russia is working with Cuba to drill in the gulf. That’s real good that they are doing so, this way they can also sell oil to us and we won’t be dependent on the Middle East. If you’re not sure, that last comment was a sarcastic one. Keep an eye on the alternative energy sector for some good gains. When oil gets above $70-$80 per barrel, solar and wind energy becomes more feasible and profitable as an investment.
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The politicians are not doing the job that they were sent to Washington to do. The spending in this country is way out of control and needs to be pulled back. The private sector has to take charge of their future. We can not expect the government to come to their rescue. If the company can’t make a profit, then it needs to close no matter how many people it will affect. In the long run, having the Federal government get involved will only hurt more than it would have originally.
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Keep your eyes on the stock market and be ready to raise capital (cash). I expect a pull back soon enough.

Tags: Alternative energy, Economy, Federal Reserve, Financials, Government spending, Investments, Stock market news, Stock trading, Treasury Dept.

Posted in Government Involvement, Investments, Stock Market News | Leave A Comment »

Bear Market Rally

What a week this has been for some great gains. Just more to add to the already increasing portfolio since the DOW hit the 6500 range. On March 9th the DOW was at 6547.05. In less than three weeks the market now sits at 7924.56 going into Friday morning trading. I don’t know about you, but if you haven’t taken your profits and locking in those gains, you are just being greedy.
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Everything points to this movement to be nothing but a bear market rally. In the last three weeks the Dow increased 18% while the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ jumped 20% during the same period.
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We are not out of the woods yet. The economy is still in disarray and current Administration doesn’t have all the answers. Whatever the reason for the stock market performance, it’s not going to last or even to be able to sustain these levels. Just because Jim Cramer has stop screaming “the sky is falling”, because he says the “Great Depression II” is off the table. Remember that after the initial crash in 1929 to the actual “bottom” in the stock market, there were quite a few bear market rallies.
Yes, the prices of stocks fell over the long three years, but in between those years there were times when the market experienced a nice 10% to 20% gains in relatively short periods of time, only to drop back down to it’s bottom or even lower levels.
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I’m quite happy with the 22% gains I’ve made this month. I started scaling back my position and taking profits on Monday. The prices of the stocks have continued to climb after I sold many of the shares. I’m not going to get greedy and think about if I didn’t sell any of the shares I would have had more profits than just 22%.
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No one can ever predict a “bottom in the market or in any one stock, the same goes for trying to do the same at the “top”. The whole idea to never buying all your shares at once is to lower your dollar cost average. The idea of scaling out of a position is to secure your profits.
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Be ready for the pull back in the stock market as it’s exactly what I’m expecting to happen in the next three weeks. I’ll pick up the same shares I sold, but at a lower prices.