Here we go again. It looks like we’re in for another ride this week on Wall Street. The stock market lost over 500 points last week and on Monday, it gained 103 points. So what going on so far for this morning? Well the DOW opened flat, but was dropping fast as the opening minutes clicked by. Within twenty five minutes the DOW was down 180 points and since then has climbed it’s way back to only being down 36 points during it’s first forty five minutes into the trading day.
Either way you look at it, it’s going to be a wild ride for the rest of the year. I’m not confident on the condition of the stock markets and because of that, I’m sitting a lot of my money off to the side until the second dip happens sometime this year. We are not out of the woods yet and we are still in a lot of economic dangers in the near future.
Last night while watching Jim Cramer on Mad Money, I noticed that he is confident in the markets and sees some great things coming in the near future. The only thing I agree with him on is his opinion on investing in gold. Of course he didn’t say if you should own stocks in gold producing companies or in actually gold itself. My thoughts on that is that you should own gold coins and other gold items. Like I said, I don’t trust the condition of Wall Street and owning stocks in gold is not the same thing. Whatever you do, do your research into anything you’re going to invest in.
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Stock market volatility fluctuates all the time, some days more than others. Volatility in the markets grow as the gains increase along with those times when uncertainty rises.
Since the markets have risen as high as they did and the condition of the economy is still on shaky ground, I’m not surprised to see that the VIX (volatility index) jumped 20% in just one day. What does surprise me is the fact that it took so long for it to happen.
In the last fourteen months, the Dow Industrial Average (DJIA) has increased by nearly 80% and over 10% in the last three months. I’ve been saying for quite some time now about the fact that the DOW sitting at over 10,000 points has no real reason to be there. Of course many investors are still riding the wave as long as they can. Unfortunately many of them won’t see it coming when the markets take the next plunge.
Unemployment is at 12% (officially), but it is estimated to be at 17% since most people who were receiving unemployment benefits last year are no longer eligible. Many companies are holding off on hiring until they get a good look at the new tax laws that the present Administration has passed. Add on the fact that the foreclosures in the United States are not shrinking, instead they are holding steady in most areas.
The VIX is one of the indicators that should be watched on a regular basis as part of your stock market strategies. As the uncertainty in the markets rises, the VIX will climb. Many average investors lose money in the stock market as this happens because the price per share of most companies will rise and fall with large swings. If you are a veteran in trading stocks, most likely you’ve learned to read the VIX and play it accordingly.
For those who are not familiar with VIX, there are a few stock market books that will help you understand much better. In many of Jim Cramer books, you will find information about the volatility in the stock market and how to play it.
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The Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke stated today that the economic recovery is sustainable. Along with the news of retail sales are up in the last month, one would think that this is the time to get in on the stock market. Well before you do, you need to be aware of a few things first.
The stock market (Dow Jones Industrial Average) has reached a new twelve month high after climbing 12% over the last two months and over 40 % year-to-date. Those are some great impressive gains, but does that mean that the markets will continue on this upward path? Well that’s anyone’s guess.
The last time the Dow was at these levels along with the S&P sitting at 1200, was in September of 2008. You have to ask yourself, “What was the condition of the economy in September 2008?” I did some research into this issue and found that this might not be the time to invest in the stock market.
In Sept., 2008, unemployment was at 6.2%. The foreclosure rate hasn’t slowed down. It’s estimated that 1 in every 538 homes are in foreclosure as of march 2010. The Federal reserve has printed so much more U.S. currency that it’s not even funny.
My point being that you should be waiting for a healthy pull back (8%-10%) before investing any capital.
You also have to look into the future of the economy too. Economics believe that the unemployment rate will still be at 8.4% at the end of 2011. Home prices will remain at near flat levels for the next two years. They also expect the economy to only grow 3% in 2010.
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