During the last two years (2008-2010) we’ve seen the stock market as well as the housing market and financial institutions go through a very rough period of correction. Now in the second half of 2010, average investors are wondering if they should start investing again. Well it depends on what you’re going to invest in.
We are no where at there bottom or the worse of it yet, but at the same time I’m looking at many different investments I may want to get in on. I will say though that the stock market is not one of them at this time. In my opinion, there is no reason for the DOW to be over 10,000 and I do expect it to come back down below 9000. When I do not know, but it will be there in due time.
What about precious metals? There is only a limited amount of gold in this world and it’s one of the few things that will retain it’s value (if not go up) in our present economic condition. I’ve been building a portfolio of just different precious metals. If you’re looking to buy gold make sure you are buying actual gold pieces and not some paper stock that trades off of gold. Between the two, only actual gold will be worth anything when and if our economy crashes.
As for the housing industry, I suggest you take your time and look for solid and profitable deals. The housing market will not turn around any time soon so you will have plenty of time to find the right one for you. We will see foreclosures going on for years to come so prices will stay in the general area if not come down even more. As an investor, you will need to look at properties that will return to good value in five to eight years from now. The days of flipping houses are on hold and will be that way for some time.
Stay away from investing in any financial institution since they are still not sure of what will happen in time with all the government regulations that will be coming down the line. So is it time to start investing? Yes if you take your time and study what it is you want to invest in.
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The Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke stated today that the economic recovery is sustainable. Along with the news of retail sales are up in the last month, one would think that this is the time to get in on the stock market. Well before you do, you need to be aware of a few things first.
The stock market (Dow Jones Industrial Average) has reached a new twelve month high after climbing 12% over the last two months and over 40 % year-to-date. Those are some great impressive gains, but does that mean that the markets will continue on this upward path? Well that’s anyone’s guess.
The last time the Dow was at these levels along with the S&P sitting at 1200, was in September of 2008. You have to ask yourself, “What was the condition of the economy in September 2008?” I did some research into this issue and found that this might not be the time to invest in the stock market.
In Sept., 2008, unemployment was at 6.2%. The foreclosure rate hasn’t slowed down. It’s estimated that 1 in every 538 homes are in foreclosure as of march 2010. The Federal reserve has printed so much more U.S. currency that it’s not even funny.
My point being that you should be waiting for a healthy pull back (8%-10%) before investing any capital.
You also have to look into the future of the economy too. Economics believe that the unemployment rate will still be at 8.4% at the end of 2011. Home prices will remain at near flat levels for the next two years. They also expect the economy to only grow 3% in 2010.
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Yesterday the news came out that new home sales jumped 9.6% for the month of July. It was the fourth straight increase in sales. Sales rose to an annual rate of 433,000, up from June’s rate of 395,000. Many are saying that the bottom is definitely in and now is the time to buy, but is that really the case.
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Yes, sales are up more than 30% from the bottom in January, but nowhere near the peak of four years ago. Of course that’s was because of the inflated bubble that was created by the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac sub-prime loans.
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So does this really mean that the bottom is in and we can expect the economy to turn around? I doubt it. Why I think that is because of the fact that the numbers are (I feel) are mis-leading. Many of the new home sales that have been happening in the last month or so were first-time home buyers. That’s because of the government’s incentive plan for first-time homeowners who qualify for an $8000 tax credit. That in itself is misleading on the fact of it’s a tax credit, not a rebate. Which means of you don’t have enough of tax liability, you won’t be able to write off all of the $8000.
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What does that mean for the industry? Well, home builders saw a jump in their stock price today, but will it be able to maintain those levels? I doubt that too. mainly because when the program will be terminated at the end of November. I believe the market will dry up again with sales. As it is, some builders have already seen a dip in home sales. In Arizona, A.F. Sterling Homes stated that sales in July stalled because the builder couldn’t guarantee the homes would be completed in time to qualify. The industry (real estate agents and builders) are really leaning on Congress to extend the the credit on the grounds of the sales could reverse from their current trend. As a matter of fact, Randy Agron, the vice president of A.F. Sterling Homes was quoted as saying “The real estate market is really a fragile thing. It’s not the right time to take (the tax credit) away”.
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With that in mind, do you really think the bottom is in? It has been proven in the past that when the government gets involved with trying to “save” the economy, it actually extends it by not letting the free market follow it’s natural course. With this program as well as the financial bailouts and “Cash For Clunkers”, we have three major industries being manipulated within the American economy.
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All I can say is…hang on, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.
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