Yesterday the news came out that new home sales jumped 9.6% for the month of July. It was the fourth straight increase in sales. Sales rose to an annual rate of 433,000, up from June’s rate of 395,000. Many are saying that the bottom is definitely in and now is the time to buy, but is that really the case.
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Yes, sales are up more than 30% from the bottom in January, but nowhere near the peak of four years ago. Of course that’s was because of the inflated bubble that was created by the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac sub-prime loans.
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So does this really mean that the bottom is in and we can expect the economy to turn around? I doubt it. Why I think that is because of the fact that the numbers are (I feel) are mis-leading. Many of the new home sales that have been happening in the last month or so were first-time home buyers. That’s because of the government’s incentive plan for first-time homeowners who qualify for an $8000 tax credit. That in itself is misleading on the fact of it’s a tax credit, not a rebate. Which means of you don’t have enough of tax liability, you won’t be able to write off all of the $8000.
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What does that mean for the industry? Well, home builders saw a jump in their stock price today, but will it be able to maintain those levels? I doubt that too. mainly because when the program will be terminated at the end of November. I believe the market will dry up again with sales. As it is, some builders have already seen a dip in home sales. In Arizona, A.F. Sterling Homes stated that sales in July stalled because the builder couldn’t guarantee the homes would be completed in time to qualify. The industry (real estate agents and builders) are really leaning on Congress to extend the the credit on the grounds of the sales could reverse from their current trend. As a matter of fact, Randy Agron, the vice president of A.F. Sterling Homes was quoted as saying “The real estate market is really a fragile thing. It’s not the right time to take (the tax credit) away”.
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With that in mind, do you really think the bottom is in? It has been proven in the past that when the government gets involved with trying to “save” the economy, it actually extends it by not letting the free market follow it’s natural course. With this program as well as the financial bailouts and “Cash For Clunkers”, we have three major industries being manipulated within the American economy.
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All I can say is…hang on, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.
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Economy,
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This past month has been great and the way the “experts” are talking, you would think that the bottoms have been found in the stock markets. If we are to learn anything from history, it’s that it tends to repeat itself. During the Great Depression, the markets experienced bull rallies a few times only to reach a new “bottom. The process was dragged out from 1929 to 1932.
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We only started seeing the signs of a downward spin in November 2007. So what makes them think that we’ve seen a bottom? When the S&P 500 hit 741 and started to climb back up, We heard that this could be the bottom. Only to pull back and fall even further to 666. That level was reached on March 9, 2009, a year and five months after it all started. Throughout that time we also were told that the credit crisis and the housing was so screwed up by “improper practices”. How could this all be figured out and solved in such a short time.
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Now we’re hearing reports about how some banks that received government money, are looking to give it back. On top of that Goldman Sachs just reported that they nearly double what The Street had expected. Something doesn’t make sense and because of that, I’m expecting us to see the markets drop back down to the lows of March 2009.
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Another thing to take into consideration is that Barack Obama stated today in a press conference that we will still see an increase in unemployment as well as foreclosures for some time.
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Do I think that the S&P will fall below 666 soon? That I can’t answer, but I can say that it will be down to that level again before the end of the third quarter of 2009.
In the meantime, I’m going to continue to be a trader and not an investor. I suggest you do the same. If you don’t have time to do your homework on stocks you’re going to invest or trade in, don’t jump in right now. You will see that there will be another opportunity to get back in at lower levels.
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Happy Trading
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Getting Started In The Stock Market,
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photo by joe shlabotnik
In this election year we have heard a lot about what will happen to the American people more than I can remember since I’ve been voting (which covers over 25 years). One of the major things being spoken about is taxes and yes it’s a topic that is discussed every election, but with the condition of the economy, it’s more important than ever.
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I’ve mentioned in an earlier post that I’m a Libertarian (a party that doesn’t get the recognition it deserves). I believe that our federal government has gotten too big, it spends way too much money than it should. The one true way to reduce taxes is to reduce spending.
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The reason why I bring this to light on a blog that deal solely with the stock market is that this year we could have our investments effected in ways that will hit us on many levels. If some of these ideas come to pass we may have more money pull put of the markets that will continue to cause the markets to fall.
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Take into consideration that if any one political party was to control the Presidency, the Senate as well as Congress, they would be able to mold the laws and pass bills that could take decades to change. At the present time the Democratic party controls the Senate and Congress. With the way Congress has been sitting on their a$$ for the last two years from all the filibustering that causes the delays in decision making, we can’t afford to let most of the candidates go back to Congress to serve this country again.
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Please be aware of the politicians that were involved with the issues that help cause the collapse of the housing market as well as the credit crisis. These candidates will most likely continue to do more of the same if they were to get re-elected.
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As for the Presidency, below is a link to help you think of a few other things that will be effected if the wrong person is voted in office. Remember Wall Street and Main Street are one and the same. Where does average Joe have his 401K plan? On Wall Street, that’s where we all have them.
Target the Investor Class in 2009
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The economy has taken a beaten in the last year. The credit crisis and the housing market were the leading cause of it all. It’s not surprising that what has happened in the last year is the result of greed and living outside of people’s means.
From the years 2002 to 2007 the growth in this country has been outstanding, but if you really take a hindsight look at it was it real growth or just a bunch of hype. People were taking advantage of the economy and borrowing more money than they could pay back. On top of that there were companies that took advantage of people who didn’t know better or were misinformed.
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Now is the time to face the music. Many people are trying to get their finances and their lives in order by regrouping and/or starting over. I’ve read many articles in regards to homeowners who are trying to sell their homes before they lose it to foreclosure proceedings. They had a chance to sell last year, but thought that the offer price was too low and wanted to wait for their asking price. It seems now that they can’t even get what they were offered back then and are now behind the 8-ball even more.
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The same goes for your portfolio. We all buy stocks and expect them to go up in value, but with the way the economy is going it hasn’t worked out that way all the time. If the stock that you’re invested in is part of your retirement account then it isn’t that bad to wait it out if your research is sound and the fundamentals are strong, but if it’s in a portfolio that is used to subsidize your daily living then it can be nerve-racking as well as scary.
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The biggest dilemma you have to face is… Do you sell at a loss or hold on to see what happens? The choice can only be decided by you and you alone. Many people involve their emotions when they are faced with this and make their choice with those emotions. If you’re down down 20% in a stock then you have to look over the news and fundamentals and make a non-emotional and logical decision. Most companies that are down over 25% don’t come back right a way. You should always be looking at different stocks and sectors to see what is working right now and in the near future, so it may be a wise idea to take the loss and have a different stock make the loss back for you. In most cases it will work out for you better if this strategy is followed.
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P.S. Want to learn more about the stock market? take a free two week trail with Jim Cramer from TheStreet.com
Tags:
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Getting Started In The Stock Market,
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Last month I talked about the foreclosure issues in this country and who’s to blame. I do feel bad for the people who are behind the 8-ball and are trapped in the corner looking for some relief, but I’m an investor and I know that the time is now to start looking for some properties that are on the market (many of them are foreclosure properties). I live in Florida and there are many homes right here in my city that are up for grabs, some of them are duplexes and tri-plexes that other investors have and are taken a beaten with the properties.
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I’ve been looking at these investments for over six months now and most of them have come down on their asking price. One particularly that I have in mind has come about 25% since I first looked at it in February. The owner is in talks with the bank and so far he’s been able to hold on to it. At the price that he was asking for back then, it wasn’t a wise investment. Now that he’s come down to his new price, It’s really looking appealing. I will be talking to my Realtor after the holiday weekend to have her make him an offer that will be about 15-20% lower than what he’s asking. If he refuses to budge on the price that will be OK. If he takes my offer then it just might be a good investment. Of course I will have to look at his financial statements as well as the rent-rolls to make that final decision. The way I write my contracts, they all have several clauses that if for one reason or another I don’t think that the purchase is not a good deal, then I have a way to exit the agreement.
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I don’t know if you invest in real estate or not, but for me it’s a great way for passive income. You might want to look into it.
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Foreclosure,
Investment property,
Investments
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